Fantasy Points by Draft Position

Fantasy Point Distribution by NFL Draft Round
By John Powderly


I: Introduction

I was recently thinking about how excited people get about fantasy football sleepers. Someone who drafted Marques Colston last season was estatic and likely making sure their fellow owners knew all about their sleeper-finding skills. That got me wondering how often a lower round NFL draft pick really makes a mark in fantasy football. I have always assumed that most of the top fantasy football scorers are higher draft picks, but I had no way of knowing how true that is and whether there is any sort of pattern to the fantasy point distribution among NFL draft rounds. So I decided to try to find out.

II: Parameters of the Study

I decided to take the top 30 fantasy point performers at QB, RB, WR and TE over the last 5 years and find out in what round each player was drafted in the NFL Draft. To address positional inequalities in fantasy football lineups, I also compared an average 12 team starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (ie. Top 12 QBs, Top 24 RBs, etc) over the last 5 years. I was going to compare both total fantasy point distribution, as well as draft round distribution. In other words, how many of the top 30 QBs last season were drafted in the 1st round? How many of the Top 30 from 2002 were drafted in the 3rd round? I believe that examining these data points may help me determine how often a lower round draft pick contributes to a fantasy football team and whether there are any lessons to be learned that could help me in the future.

A trickier part of the study was the fact that it wasn't possible to know exactly which years of NFL draft data would perfectly coincide with 5 years of fantasy point data. Someone who was a top 24 RB in 2003 could have been drafted back in 1991. But using the entire 1991 draft as a data point for fantasy points in 2002 through 2006 was probably unfair because of the short duration of the average football player's career. There is no way to find a perfect match, but for this study I decided to go back through 10 years of NFL draft data. So I will examine drafts from 1997 through 2006 and compare to fantasy points from 2002 through 2006. This should give me a large enough dataset to make some reasonable conclusions.

III: Results of the Study


The data set is available in spreadsheet form here. Let's look at the results by position.

Quarterback:

Here are the Draft Slot and Fantasy Point distributions for the Top 30 QBs from 2002 to 2006 (or 150 QBs in total)

• Round 1 - 68 or 45.3% of the Top 150 QBs were drafted in Round 1; 47.07% of fantasy points were from Round 1 draftees


• Round 2 - 17 or 11.3% of the slots; 11.89% of fantasy points


• Round 3 - 6 or 4% of the slots; 3.02% of fantasy points


• Round 4 - 7 or 4.7% of the slots; 4.96% of fantasy points


• Round 5 - 3 or 2% of the slots; 1.7% of fantasy points


• Round 6 - 20 or 13.3% of the slots; 13.33% of fantasy points


• Round 7 - 2 or 1.3% of the slots; 1.02% of fantasy points


• Round 8 - 4 or 2.7% of the slots; 3.41% of fantasy points


• Round 9 - 4 or 2.7% of the slots; 2.36% of fantasy points


• UDFA (UnDraftedFreeAgent) - 19 or 12.7% of the slots; 11.24% of fantasy points

In examining these numbers, the first thing that jumps out is the outlier of the round 6 QBs. The second most Top 30 slots are from 6th round Quarterbacks. Everyone knows about Tom Brady, but Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck also contributed to the 6th round QB successes.

Another noticable result is that the draft slot percentage and fantasy points percentage are pretty closely tied. I expected an even distribution, but wanted to see if there was a case where, besides having the most slots, a particular round had a much higher percentage of fantasy points within those slots. That doesn't seem to be the case here.

The final observation from these results is that the most draft slots and fantasy points came from QBs drafted in the 1st round. In fact, I added up the first three rounds to come up with 60.6% of the Top 30 scorers over the last 5 years have been first day draftees.

Next, I did the same examination for the Top 12 QBs each year (60 QBs total), or those that should be starting in a 12 team, Start 1 QB fantasy league. Here are the results:

• Round 1 - 26 slots or 43.33%


• Round 2 - 9 slots or 15%


• Round 3 - 0 slots


• Round 4 - 4 slots or 6.67%


• Round 5 - 0 slots


• Round 6 - 10 slots or 16.67%


• Round 7 - 0 slots


• Round 8 - 4 slots or 6.67%


• Round 9 - 1 slot or 1.67%


• UDFA - 6 slots or 10%

So we again see that Round 1 has the most Top 12 fantasy points finishes and Round 6 still does surprisingly well.



Running Back:
Here are the Draft Slot and Fantasy Point distributions for the Top 30 RBs from 2002 to 2006 (or 150 RBs in total)

• Round 1 - 71 or 47.33% of the Top 150 RBs were drafted in Round 1; 48.69% of fantasy points were from Round 1 draftees


• Round 2 - 26 or 17.33% of the slots; 18.29% of fantasy points


• Round 3 - 25 or 16.67% of the slots; 15.43% of fantasy points


• Round 4 - 15 or 10% of the slots; 8.9% of fantasy points


• Round 5 - 1 or 0.67% of the slots; 0.44% of fantasy points


• Round 6 - 2 or 1.33% of the slots; 1.28% of fantasy points


• UDFA (UnDraftedFreeAgent) - 10 or 6.67% of the slots; 6.96% of fantasy points

In examining these numbers, the first thing that jumps out is the expected downward trend of Top 30 slots with draft round. The first round has the most, followed by the 2nd, followed by the 3rd, etc. This seems to indicate to me that, in general, NFL teams knew what they were doing when drafting running backs. The ones drafted in the first round had a greater chance of contributing in terms of fantasy points than those drafted in the 2nd round, and so on. Of course, there also may be more pressure for the coach to play a first round RB, thus increasing his points. Either way, as a fantasy owner, you win.

Again notice that the draft slot percentage and fantasy points percentage are pretty closely tied. This mirrors the QB position and lends more weight to the conclusion that there is an even distribution of rounds within the Top 30.

A final observation is the much greater percentage of First Day draftees on the list than at the QB position. The First Day RBs account for 81.33% of the Top 30 fantasy scorers over those 5 years. This is far greater than the 60.6% for QBs. One possible explaination for this is that running backs are easier to evaluate than quarterbacks, so it is far less often that all teams "miss" on a great player until the later rounds. Priest Holmes and Willie Parker are really uncommon exceptions.

Next, I did the same examination for the Top 24 RBs each year (120 RBs total), or those that should be starting in a 12 team, Start 2 RB fantasy league. Here are the results:

• Round 1 - 57 slots or 47.5%


• Round 2 - 24 slots or 20%


• Round 3 - 19 slots or 15.83%


• Round 4 - 11 slots or 9.16%


• Round 5 - 0 slots


• Round 6 - 2 slots or 1.67%


• UDFA - 7 slots or 5.83%

So we again see that Round 1 has the most Top 24 fantasy points finishes and that the first day is a very high 83.33%.

Wide Receiver:
Here are the Draft Slot and Fantasy Point distributions for the Top 30 WRs from 2002 to 2006 (or 150 WRs in total)

• Round 1 - 69 or 46% of the Top 150 WRs were drafted in Round 1; 45.75% of fantasy points were from Round 1 draftees


• Round 2 - 33 or 22% of the slots; 21.46% of fantasy points


• Round 3 - 21 or 14% of the slots; 15.18% of fantasy points


• Round 4 - 7 or 4.67% of the slots; 4.32% of fantasy points


• Round 5 - 3 or 2% of the slots; 2.28% of fantasy points


• Round 6 - 0 slots


• Round 7 - 7 or 4.67% of the slots; 4.85% of fantasy points


• Round 12 - 2 or 1.33% of the slots; 1.31% of fantasy points


• UDFA (UnDraftedFreeAgent) - 8 or 5.33% of the slots; 4.85% of fantasy points

In examining these numbers, we see the same downward trend as we did with the running backs. So again, it seems like the NFL knows how to evaluate WRs and that generally the higher a WR is drafted, the more likely he is to be a Top 30 performer in fantasy points.

As with the Running Backs, the First Day percentage on WRs is very high. 82% of the Top 30 WRs from 2002 through 2006 were drafted on the first day of the draft.

You have to love 12th rounder Keenan McCardell finishing in the Top 30 twice. In fact, he finished 10th and 17th. I guess he showed those scouts.

Keenan highlights an interesting trend: Several of the lower round or UDFA WRs are older WRs who were drafted awhile ago, like McCardell, Rod Smith, Wayne Chrebet and Donald Driver. This could mean that as the years go by, NFL teams get better and better at scouting talent and fewer players slip through the cracks. However, there is not enough data to come to a solid conclusion about this trend, as Colston has proven.

Next, I did the same examination for the Top 36 WRs each year (180 WRs total), or those that should be starting in a 12 team, Start 3 WR fantasy league. Here are the results:

• Round 1 - 77 slots or 42.78%


• Round 2 - 39 slots or 21.67%


• Round 3 - 27 slots or 15%


• Round 4 - 10 slots or 5.56%


• Round 5 - 3 slots or 1.67%


• Round 6 - 2 slots or 1.11%


• Round 7 - 8 slots or 4.44%


• Round 12 - 2 slots or 1.11%


• UDFA - 12 slots or 6.67%

So we again see that Round 1 has the most Top 36 fantasy points finishes.

Tight End:
Here are the Draft Slot and Fantasy Point distributions for the Top 30 TEs from 2002 to 2006 (or 150 TEs in total)

• Round 1 - 39 or 26% of the Top 150 TEs were drafted in Round 1; 31.45% of fantasy points were from Round 1 draftees


• Round 2 - 32 or 21.33% of the slots; 19.22% of fantasy points


• Round 3 - 20 or 13.33% of the slots; 12.87% of fantasy points


• Round 4 - 10 or 6.67% of the slots; 6.44% of fantasy points


• Round 5 - 3 or 2% of the slots; 1.14% of fantasy points


• Round 6 - 12 or 8% of the slots; 6.47% of fantasy points


• Round 7 - 11 or 7.33% of the slots; 6.92% of fantasy points


• UDFA (UnDraftedFreeAgent) - 23 or 15.33% of the slots; 15.48% of fantasy points

In examining these numbers, the first thing that jumps out is the more even distribution of slots by round. The TE position looks much more like the QB position than the RB or WR positions. Look at the high values for rounds 6, 7 and UDFAs. Only the 6th round QBs have a higher number of 6, 7 or UDFA slots taken than the TEs. Clearly this is a position that NFL teams have a hard time projecting with certainty.

Another interesting result is the large difference between the Round 1 slot percentage and the Round 1 fantasy point percentage. Every other round at other positions have a 0 to 2 percent difference. But here that difference is doubled, at 5.45%. This leads me to believe that the first round TEs that are successful enough to be in the Top 30 list are very successful within that list. Tight Ends like Jeremy Shockey, Tony Gonzalez and Todd Heap are high up on the list every year. Possibly NFL teams do greater due diligence when scouting a TE that they would consider taking with their first pick.

As expected based on the first comment, TEs have only a 60.66% First Day percentage, almost exactly the same rate as the QBs. This reinforces the idea that TE is a difficult position to scout.

Next, I did the same examination for the Top 12 TEs each year (60 TEs total), or those that should be starting in a 12 team, Start 1 TE fantasy league. Here are the results:

• Round 1 - 24 slots or 40%


• Round 2 - 12 slots or 20%


• Round 3 - 5 slots or 8.33%


• Round 4 - 5 slots or 8.33%


• Round 5 - 0 slots


• Round 6 - 3 slots or 5%


• Round 7 - 4 slots or 6.67%


• UDFA - 7 slots or 11.67%

Notice the higher percentage for Top 12 TEs in the first round, 40%, compared to the Top 30's 26%. This is another data point that shows that the first round TEs that make it into the Top 30 also likely make it into the Top 12.

IV: Fuzzy Math

As mentioned in section II, I also wanted to try to find out what percentage of total players drafted by position and round made up the Top 30 fantasy point list. In other words, if you consider making the Top 30 fantasy point list in a given season a "success", then what percentage of players drafted were "successful"?

There are a couple of issues with this part of the study. First of all, as mentioned in section II, there is not a way to completely map which drafts produced most/all of the Top 30 lists from 2002 to 2006. I decided to look back 10 years to 1997 and examine drafts from 1997 to 2006.

The second issue is that it may not be reasonable at the QB and TE position to assume that a player ranking 30th in fantasy points was successful. To combat this issue, I am going to use the fantasy starting lineup list (ie. Top 12 QBs, Top 24 RBs, etc) to define success. Of course, this shortchanges the good backup players that likely had to start in your lineup due to an injury or bye week, but I would rather underestimate than overestimate.

So let's look at the data. Here are the number of players drafted at each position in each round from 1997 to 2006:


QB:

• Rd 1 - 27


• Rd 2 - 8


• Rd 3 - 14


• Rd 4 - 13


• Rd 5 - 14


• Rd 6 - 21


• Rd 7 - 27

RB:

• Rd 1 - 30


• Rd 2 - 21


• Rd 3 - 25


• Rd 4 - 34


• Rd 5 - 17


• Rd 6 - 15


• Rd 7 - 29

WR:

• Rd 1 - 41


• Rd 2 - 41


• Rd 3 - 37


• Rd 4 - 42


• Rd 5 - 40


• Rd 6 - 50


• Rd 7 - 64

TE:

• Rd 1 - 14


• Rd 2 - 18


• Rd 3 - 20


• Rd 4 - 14


• Rd 5 - 26


• Rd 6 - 21


• Rd 7 - 31

Comment: Interesting that 2nd round quarterbacks are the most rare. This probably shows the pressure on NFL teams to pick a QB in the first round, even if they are graded out as a second rounder (coughcoughJPLosmancoughcough).

If we assume that each player drafted has 5 chances or 5 seasons to be in one of the 5 Top 12 lists from 2002 to 2006, then we can multiple all these numbers by 5 to get a total number of seasons that each position/draft round combination could be in the list. So if we then divide the number of players making the Top 12, 24, 36 or 12 list at each position for each round by these seasons, we MAY be able to infer the general success rate for being a fantasy football "starter".

QB: Top 12 TotSeasons PctSuccess

• Rd 1 - 26 135 19.25%


• Rd 2 - 9 40 22.50%


• Rd 3 - 0 70 0.00%


• Rd 4 - 4 65 6.15%


• Rd 5 - 0 70 0.00%


• Rd 6 - 10 105 9.52%


• Rd 7 - 0 135 0.00%

Comments: One interesting thing we see here is that although there were almost 3 times as many Top 12 QBs drafted in round 1 as round 2, there was a higher percentage of QBs drafted in round 2 that made the Top 12 because fewer were drafted. Second rounders like Favre, Brees and Plummer really helped increase the success rate.
Another observation is that although we have seen the large number of successful 6th round QBs like Brady, Bulger and Hasselbeck, so many have been drafted in the 6th round that the success rate is not that impressive.
It's also interesting that the 3rd round, in which there should still be some talented QBs available, has a 0% success rate. Former young guns Brian Griese, Charlie Frye, Chris Simms and Josh McCown were all 3rd round picks.

RB: Top 24 TotSeasons PctSuccess

• Rd 1 - 57 150 38.00%


• Rd 2 - 24 105 22.85%


• Rd 3 - 19 125 15.20%


• Rd 4 - 11 170 6.47%


• Rd 5 - 0 85 0.00%


• Rd 6 - 2 75 2.67%


• Rd 7 - 0 0 0.00%

Comments: Easy to see again that at running back, the first day picks are the most likely to have success and the rate drops off after that. What is really interesting to me is the number of RBs drafted (seasons) in rounds 2 and 4. For all the talk about being able to find RBs anywhere for some offenses, there sure is a large drop off from round 1 to round 2. That tells me that NFL teams are making sure to draft a RB with their 1st rounder if they want a player because they value the position highly. There is also a huge jump in the 4th round, which is when teams have re-adjusted their draft boards for the 2nd day. Combine these two things with the fact that there are less lower round or UDFA sleepers on the Top 24 list and I think it's clear that running back is a position highly valued and highly scouted by NFL teams. Maybe that is going to change as more teams go to a RBBC approach, but that hasn't happened over the last 5 years.

Statistical oddity: There are no Top 12/24 performers from the 5th and 7th rounds for both QBs and RBs. I guess those numbers are unlucky.

WR: Top 36 TotSeasons PctSuccess

• Rd 1 - 77 205 37.56%


• Rd 2 - 39 205 19.02%


• Rd 3 - 27 185 14.59%


• Rd 4 - 10 210 4.76%


• Rd 5 - 3 200 1.50%


• Rd 6 - 2 250 0.80%


• Rd 7 - 8 320 2.50%

Comments: Similar to the RB position, Wide receivers that are drafted earlier in the draft seem to be more successful, with the a pretty severe fall off after the first day of the draft. What is interesting to me is the large number of WRs drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds. Those rounds have the most WRs drafted for the last 10 years. Apparently all you need is a pulse to get drafted at the end of the second day if you are a WR. As excited as the Saints were about Colston last year, he has several high performance years ahead to match 7th rounders Donald Driver (4 Top 36 finishes) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (3). "Championship" indeed.

TE: Top 12 TotSeasons PctSuccess

• Rd 1 - 24 70 34.28%


• Rd 2 - 12 90 13.33%


• Rd 3 - 5 100 5.00%


• Rd 4 - 5 70 7.14%


• Rd 5 - 0 130 0.00%


• Rd 6 - 3 105 2.85%


• Rd 7 - 4 155 2.58%

Comments: This data looks similar to the QB data. Some good success in the first round, but random success after that. The most TEs drafted in the last 10 years have been in the 6th and 7th rounds.

Statistical oddity Part 2: At 3 of our 4 positions (QB, RB and TE) there have been no players drafted in the 5th round that finished the season as a fantasy starter. That is very strange. I guess the 5th round is for slackers. And hats off to the man responsible for the 3 fantasy starter seasons from the 5th round at wide receiver, Joe Horn. You're no slacker, Joe.

V. What does it all mean, Basil?

So what conclusions can we reach with this data? Well, I think it's clear that there is a lot of evidence that the earlier a player is drafted, the greater chance of fantasy football success he will have. The QB and TE positions show that there is some uncertainty about evaluating the position, as there are some top performers later in the draft or who are undrafted.

The RB and WR positions are remarkable similar in their success rates. They average approximately a 38% success rate for 1st rounders, a 20% success rate for 2nd rounders and a 15% success rate for 3rd rounders.

The lesson for fantasy football owners should probably be to heed the advice given to you by the NFL teams in form of the draft order. Sure there are players like Ryan Leaf and Tom Brady who don't perform to the level of their draft round. And maybe you are a very good judge of college talent and just know that Jerome Harrison should have been a 3rd rounder, not a 5th rounder. But do yourself a favor and draft the running backs taken in rounds 3 and 4 first. You will likely have more success that way.