A Detailed Examination of Handcuffing Running Backs

This article was written in 2005 concerning the 2004 NFL season. It was selected as a Freelance Article at FootballGuys.com, but never published on the site.

A Detailed Examination of Handcuffing Running Backs

By

John Powderly

I. Introduction

Two years ago, I wrote a freelance article for Footballguys.com titled “The Case Against Handcuffing”. You can view the article here if you are a member. I believe I made a pretty good case against handcuffing your top RB, however I wanted to do a more detailed examination of the results of handcuffing.

II. Parameters of the Study

I decided to examine the draft and end results of 15 different Phenom leagues, which are a group of great leagues run by Unlucky. I have participated in these leagues, and their precursor, the Greek Leagues, for several years and I feel confident that these leagues are a good sampling of smart, informed fantasy football owners. For each of these leagues, I went through the entire draft and noted where the same owner drafted two Running Backs from the same team. I am defining this as a Running Back Handcuff. I also noted the next three Running Backs drafted after the second same team RB. I am defining these as the Missed Opportunity Running Backs. My theory is that by taking a handcuff to your main RB you can easily miss out on better value at the RB position.

I will compare how these players do throughout the year and, week by week, examine situations is which having the handcuff RB worked out to the owner’s advantage. If a handcuff RB starts for a team during a particular week (a handcuff RB coming into the game to spell the starter does not qualify as you would not have started the handcuff RB in your league), I will compare that handcuff’s fantasy points for the game to the three Missed Opportunity RBs points for that week. I will also do a season comparison.

I hope to be able to examine the frequency of handcuffing RBs in “shark-infested” leagues, the frequency of those handcuff RBs working out, and the missed opportunities that handcuffing entails.

The scoring I will use to determine fantasy points will be the standard 1 pt/10 Rush/Rec yards and 6 pts for a TD.

NOTE - These 15 leagues represent several different scoring and roster size options to try to give a broad view of handcuffing. There are no Dynasty leagues.

III. 2004 Pre-season Running back Depth Chart Discussion

One of my main problems with handcuffing is that you are often unsure whom the handcuff for a star RB is when you draft. This is especially true if you draft early in the pre-season. I am going to examine each team’s Running Back depth chart at the end of pre-season.

Handcuff Clarity: 3 = Certain, 2 = Some Doubt, 1 = No Clue

NOTE: Only 3 teams in the NFL had no instances of handcuffing RBs in the 15 leagues examined: ATL, PHI, and SD. I will not discuss them.

Baltimore: Starter- Jamal Lewis; Backups – Musa Smith, Chester Taylor

Notes: Lewis is clearly a star RB and his impending Federal Trial made getting his handcuff a priority for some owners. The issue is that people were split on whether the main backup would be Smith or Taylor. The consensus seemed to be that Taylor was more of a 3^rd down back and that Smith would start in Lewis’ place.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Buffalo: Starter – Travis Henry; Backup – Willis McGahee

Notes: Henry is pretty clearly the starter, although some folks thought McGahee might beat him out by season’s end.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Cincinnati: Starter – Rudi Johnson; Backups – Chris Perry, Kenny Watson

Notes: Johnson is the starter, but is a bit of an unknown. Perry was likely drafted to be the backup and future, but good things were heard about Watson in camp. Still, a pretty clear picture of who was the handcuff.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Cleveland: Starter = Lee Suggs; Backup – William Green

Notes: This was a murky situation, with lots of folks declaring that Suggs was much better than Green and others saying that Green had turned his life around and would win this job early in the season.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Denver: Starter – Quentin Griffin; Backups – Tatum Bell, Garrison Hearst, Mike Anderson

Notes: This situation was pure insanity in the pre-season with everyone seeming to have a different opinion on how things would work out. By the end of preseason it was clear that Griffin was the starter, but the backup was really unknown.

Handcuff Clarity = 1

Houston: Starter – Domanick Davis; Backups – Tony Hollings, Jonathan Wells

Notes: This situation was pretty straightforward with most folks assuming that the greater "talent" in Hollings would be the main backup. Wells was being phased out.

Handcuff Clarity= 2

Indianapolis: Starter - Edgerrin James; Backup - Dominic Rhodes

Notes: This was a very clear situation with Rhodes thought of as a reasonable backup for James. Some folks were still wondering if Edge was back from his knee injury, which made Rhodes more necessary than usual.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Jacksonville: Starter - Fred Taylor; Backups - LaBrandon Toefield, Greg Jones

Notes: When you're nickname is Fragile Fred (correct pronunciation: FRA-JEE-LAY), you're going to have folks picking up your backup. Toefield had shown more of his stuff, but was also injury prone. Jones was a rookie from FSU with an awesome smack down of a Tar Heel defender on his resume.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Kansas City: Starter - Priest Holmes; Backups - Derrick Blaylock, Larry Johnson

Notes: Holmes had been injured, but released a workout video to show the world he was fine. Due to the outstanding OL of KC, most folks wanted his backup. Blaylock was an underrated backup who usually produced when called upon and Johnson was a 2nd year guy who needed to get his diaper off according to the coach.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Miami: Starter - If you drafted early, Ricky Williams; Otherwise, Travis Minor; Backups - Sammy Morris, Leonard Henry, Jim Kiick

Notes: Ricky did the fantasy world no favors by retiring right as camp opened. Minor was a shaky bet to be the starter based on his prior experience in Miami. But Sammy Morris and Leonard Henry loomed.

Handcuff Clarity = 1

New England: Starter - Corey Dillon; Backups - Kevin Faulk, Cedric Cobbs

Notes: Corey Dillon finally escaped Cincinnati with something to prove. Faulk was the 3rd down back who wasn't big enough to take over for Dillon and Cobbs was a bruising 2nd day draft pick.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

New York Jets: Starter - Curtis Martin; Backup - Lamont Jordan

Notes: Nice, clear-cut, no questions asked situation.

Handcuff Clarity= 3

Oakland: Starter - Tyrone Wheatley; Backups - Justin Fargas, Amos Zereoue, Zack Crockett

Notes: The backup situation was a bit of a mystery. Fargas was a 3rd round pick with great measureables, Zereoue was coming over after a decent stint as the Steelers backup and Crockett was the TD vulture.

Handcuff Clarity = 1

Pittsburgh: Starter - Duce Staley; Backup - Jerome Bettis

Notes: A pretty clear situation with Bettis probably getting the short yardage work.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Tennessee: Starter - Chris Brown; Backup - Antowain Smith

Notes: Another pretty clear-cut situation with some people worried about Brown's injury history going back to his college days at Colorado.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Arizona: Starter - Emmitt Smith; Backups - Marcel Shipp, Damien Anderson

Notes: Emmitt was the starter, but his age made most people think a backup may be valuable. Shipp was the best bet, but some folks liked the sleeper, Anderson.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Carolina: Starter - Stephen Davis; Backup - Deshaun Foster

Notes: Davis was the starter, but was getting up there in years and Foster had looked great in preseason a year before.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Chicago: Starter - Thomas Jones; Backup - Anthony Thomas

Notes: Clear situation in which there was a worry that Thomas would steal goal line carries.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Dallas: Starter/Backups - Eddie George, Julius Jones

Notes: This was an interesting situation in which there were different opinions on who the starter would be from week to week. Many thought that Parcells would go with a veteran, as he has done in the past, over a rookie.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Detroit: Starter - Kevin Jones; Backup - Artose Pinner

Notes: Much to the dismay of FBG Message Board User jwvdcw, Jones was named the starter over Pinner.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Green Bay: Starter - Ahman Green; Backups - Najeh Davenport, Tony Fisher

Notes: Davenport was the main backup while Fisher was more of the 3rd down back.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Minnesota: Starter - Michael Bennett; Backups - Moe Williams, Onterrio Smith, Mewelde Moore

Notes: Minnesota, or as I like to call them "Denver Lite", had mass confusion in their backfield going into 2004. The pre-Whizzinator Smith was likely to be the main backup, although he had some doubters. Williams was always a good bet to catch some passes and vulture some short TDs. And Moore was a rookie who many thought should have been drafted higher. There were actually 5 different combinations of these 4 RBs taken in the 15 leagues I examined.

Handcuff Clarity = 1

New Orleans: Starter - Deuce McAllister; Backups - Ki-Jana Carter, Aaron Stecker

Notes: As a number one overall pick, Carter was thought of as a better bet to backup McAllister. But Stecker was there as well and had showed some good skills as a backup with Tampa Bay.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

New York Giants: Starter - Tiki Barber; Backup - Ron Dayne

Notes: New HC Tom Coughlin was going to turn Dayne into a goal line back by placing donuts in the end zone.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Saint Louis: Starter - Marshall Faulk; Backup - Steven Jackson

Notes: Marshall was at one time a stud RB. But Jackson was drafted to be the future Ram stud RB after Trung Candidate and Lamar Gordon didn't work out.

Handcuff Clarity = 3

San Francisco: Starter - Kevan Barlow; Backup - Jamal Robertson

Notes: Barlow was pretty hyped up going into the season as a breakout candidate. Robertson was thought to be the primary backup, although Terry Jackson and Maurice Hicks were lurking.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Seattle: Starter - Shaun Alexander; Backup - Maurice Morris

Notes: Quite a clear cut situation

Handcuff Clarity = 3

Tampa Bay: Starter - Charlie Garner; Backups - Michael Pittman, Mike Alstott

Notes: Pittman was suspended for the first 3 games of the season for going demolition derby on his wife. Alstott always is good for some TD vultures. There was some thought that Garner would keep the starting job even after Pittman got back. Oops.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

Washington: Starter - Clinton Portis; Backups - Ladell Betts, Sultan McCullough

Notes: Betts was still trying to fulfill his potential as an NFL RB while McCullough was an undrafted "could have been" out of USC.

Handcuff Clarity = 2

IV. Statistical Breakdown of Handcuff Results

If you examine the data set here, you will see three different sets of data, which I will discuss one by one.

Draft-Starters (First tab)

This data set shows both the draft results by team in all 15 leagues, including the 3 MORBs, as well as the weekly results (through week 16) of every team and who the MRB was in each game.

Looking at the top section, you see the team, their RB1 and any handcuffs listed. Each league, numbered from 1 to 15, will show the draft positions of the RB1 and handcuff RB, as well as the next 3 RBs drafted in that league. These are the MORBs.

For example, in League 1 a team drafted Lee Suggs at 4.12 and William Green at 8.12. The 3 MORBs were Onterrio Smith, Willis McGahee and Tatum Bell.

You'll also notice the 3 teams with no handcuff drafted in any of the 15 leagues highlighted in red.

One interesting note is that the 15 leagues are, generally, numbered in order from earliest draft start date to latest draft start date. You'll notice that leagues 1 and 2 have the most handcuffs, with 14 and 13 respectively. The last couple of leagues have only 4 or 5. This makes sense because the closer to the regular season a draft occurs; the more information about possible injury concerns or handcuff prospects is available. This should lead to fewer handcuff needs as the situations sort themselves out.

In the bottom section is the list of each teams MRB throughout the first 16 weeks of the season. An entry highlighted by light blue is a week in which a drafted handcuff was the MRB. These light blue entries also list the number of fantasy points that handcuff scored as the MRB. An entry highlighted by yellow is a week in which an undrafted backup RB is the MRB. The six teams highlighted in green never had a MRB other than the pre-season starter.

For example, Carolina had Stephen Davis start the first game, and then DeShaun Foster started 3 games before getting hurt. Davis came back for a week before Brad Hoover, Joey Harris and Nick Goings finished off the season. Foster was the only handcuff drafted.

The next two rows show the number of times each week that both a handcuff and non-handcuff RB were the MRB. As we would expect, both numbers grow as the season went on due to injury or ineffectiveness by the starters. The highest week of handcuff MRBs was week 12 with ten handcuffs listed as the MRB.

After that is some league wide data comparisons concerning the use of handcuffs. There were 29 teams that had handcuffs drafted in my study. Each team played 15 games (not including week 17). Therefore there were 435 games total with a MRB. A drafted handcuff was the MRB in 98 of those games, or 22.5% of them. An undrafted handcuff was the MRB in 32 of those games, or 7.4%. So total handcuff MRB games were 130 out of a possible 435 or just under 30% of the games played. So in conclusion, last year in these 15 leagues, a handcuff RB was the main RB 30% of the time. This number is a little bit higher than I would have thought.

Finally there is a list of the 6 teams that never had a handcuff RB perform as the MRB in a game. So 6 teams out of 29 examined, or 20.7% of the teams in the league, did not use a backup as the Main RB at all during the season.

Starter Comparisons (Second tab)

The next data set is a list of all the times a handcuff RB was the MRB in every league, with their points and the names and points of the 3 MORBs listed as well. The average points are found for these 3 MORB, as well as the difference between the MRB and the average MORB. The Best Point total from a MORB and its difference from the MRB are also calculated. This is to show the possibilities had the owner drafted the highest scoring MORB that week.

For example, in week 1 William Green was a MRB and scored 9.2 points. He was drafted in leagues 1, 2, 3 and 9. In league 1, the 3 MORBs were Onterrio Smith, Willis McGahee and Tatum Bell. Their average number of points in week 1 was 8.4. So the William Green owner scored .8 more points that week than if he had taken the 3 MORBs. However, had he taken the best scoring MORB that week, Smith with 19.9 points, he would have gained the 10.7 more points that week that Smith scored.

The Total Averages listed at the bottom of the page were surprising to me. The average number of points a handcuff scored last year as the MRB was 13.3! This is much higher than the average MORB point total of 4.1 points, and also higher than the Best Point total of 8.5 points. So the only conclusion I can reach, based on these 15 leagues in 2004, is that when the handcuff RB was the main RB, he outscored any of the Missed Opportunity RBs you could have drafted. Of course, this does not account for the "Carrying Cost" of having those handcuff RBs on your roster when they are not the MRB.

Team Totals (Third tab)

This data set will help us examine the result of drafting a handcuff RB whom is never a MRB at anytime during the year. The data set lists all the drafted handcuffs and shows how many games, if any, they were the MRB during the season. If they were never the MRB, I look at their yearly point total compared to the yearly point totals of the 3 MORBs.

For example, Musa Smith was drafted in league 8 and never was a MRB. He had a total of 7.9 points for the year. The owner could have drafted Jerome Bettis, DeShaun Foster or Onterrio Smith instead, who averaged 113.2 points on the year. So in this league, the Musa Smith owner lost out on 105.3 points or an average of 6.2 points per game. That is quite a lot of points to be giving away each week. Obviously, this study does not examine whether that owner actually kept Musa Smith on his roster all season. But for our purposes, this shows us a significant loss of point production in this case.

As a side note, although I did not examine every owner's roster moves and record, I did check on the owner of LaBrandon Toefield in league 12. This owner picked up Toefield, who was never a MRB, to back up Fred Taylor over Michael Pittman, Onterrio Smith and Richie Anderson. He lost out on an average of 4.8 points per game. Checking with the league results, he kept Toefield on his roster the entire season and finished last in his division with a 3-11 record. There are many other factors that produced that dismal record, but certainly passing on those 3 RBs and keeping Toefield on the roster the entire season did not help.

At the bottom of the dataset are totals for these handcuff RBs whom never were a MRB. Their average yearly point total was 22.7 points, compared to the MORB point total of 57.3 points. This is a difference of 34.6 points during the season or about 2 points a game. So owners that drafted a handcuff RB whom was never the MRB lost about 2 points a game. While I don't consider 2 points a game to be significant, it likely did cost some owners a game or two.

However, this loss of 2 points a game for drafting a handcuff RB whom is never a MRB pales in comparison to the 9.2 points on average that were gained in the games when a handcuff RB was the MRB. To fully compare these two situations, we would also need to create a dataset that shows the point difference between the handcuff RBs the weeks that they are NOT the MRB and their 3 MORBs. Although this would likely lessen the 9.2-point average difference, it would not lessen the affect enough to approach a 2-point loss a game for holding a non-MRB handcuff.

V. Strategy Breakdown of Handcuff Results

So now let's examine the top 10 and bottom 10 handcuff RB point producers to see if we can learn anything for future years.

Top 10 Handcuff MRB Point Average:

1) L Johnson KC 23.0 points in 4 games

2) N Davenport GB 20.7 points in 1 game

3) A Thomas CHI 14.6 points in 2 games

4) D Blaylock KC 13.3 points in 3 games

5) M Pittman TB 12.5 points in 12 games

6) M Moore MIN 12.3 points in 4 games

7) D Foster CAR 11.3 points in 3 games

8) W McGahee BUF 10.6 points in 11 games

9) J Bettis PIT 10.0 points in 6 games

10T) O Smith MIN 9.7 points in 7 games

10T) S Jackson STL 9.7 points in 1 game

The first thing to notice about this list is that two teams, KC and MIN, appear twice. It would appear that these two teams are very good at plugging backup RBs into their offensive systems due to great game plans and/or offensive lines. These might be good handcuff targets for this year, with Larry Johnson behind Priest Holmes and Mewelde Moore behind Michael Bennett as the two best bets.

Also notice the wide range of number of games as MRB in this list. As great as Johnson was averaging 23 points in his 4 games as the starter, weren't you better off having Pittman averaging 12.5 points in 12 games? Or McGahee averaging 10.6 points in 11 games? You probably were because Pittman and McGahee gave you many more chances to start them as opposed to one game wonders like Davenport and Jackson.

However, this may show that Davenport and Jackson can deliver and are good bets in the coming year. Jackson has been named the Rams starting RB, but Davenport is still behind Ahman Green for the Packers. He may be a better bet than Tony Fisher as the handcuff to Green based on his work last year.

Looking at the actual running backs themselves, it's difficult to find too much of a pattern. All except Blaylock and maybe Moore were pretty highly regarding coming into the NFL. Most are younger, but Bettis is almost to retirement age and Pittman has been around for a while. The most telling aspect of these backs may be that only one of them, Mewelde Moore, is thought of as a situational or "3rd down" RB. The rest were regarded as every down RBs.

Finally, let's look at the team's situation going into last season. Looking back to section III above, the average Handcuff Clarity for these 10 RBs was 2.6. This tells us that most of the best performing handcuffs come from situations were the handcuff was very clear. The two Minnesota RBs are the exception to this rule.

Bottom 10 Non-MRB Yearly Point Averages

1) L Toefield JAX (5.2) points per game

2T) J Jackson CLE (4.1) points per game

2T) C Cobbs NE (4.1) points per game

4T) R Dayne NYG (4.0) points per game

4T) M Morris SEA (4.0) points per game

6) T Hollings HOU (3.9) points per game

7) C Perry CIN (3.7) points per game

8) M Smith BAL (2.8) points per game

9) D Anderson ARI (2.5) points per game

10) J Robertson SF (2.4) points per game

The first thing to notice about this list is that generally the teams represented had poor offensive seasons. This shows that even if the handcuff you drafted never starts a game, at least he should put up some points in garbage time if he is on a good team with a powerful offense. This could save you if you need to use him as an emergency starter some week during the season.

The second thing to notice is that these are all younger RBs whom had never really shown much in the NFL. While the list of Top 10 RBs above includes some younger players as well, most of them were highly acclaimed and drafted as such. These players, with the exception of Dayne, were not as touted coming into the NFL. Tony Hollings only started 4 games at RB in his entire college career!

Finally notice that these RBs are generally behind some of the more solid veteran RBs in the league, including Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis (both with injury concerns, however), Corey Dillon, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander and Emmitt Smith. This shows me that merely finding older or injury-prone RB1s is not necessarily the best way to find a valuable handcuff RB.

VI. Overall Conclusions from the Study

"What does it all mean, Basil?"

If all this analysis of statistical data has left you as confused as Austin Powers, let me try to draw some conclusions using my article against handcuffing from 2 years ago. In that article, I listed 5 reasons why you should not handcuff your star RBs:

1) Not sure which RB is actually the #1 backup

I believe that this issue is still warranted. You must be sure of the actual backup to the RB1 before you draft your handcuff. The Ravens are a good example, as Musa Smith lost you 2.8 points a game over the course of the season, while Chester Taylor gained you 7.9 points per game in his 5 games as the MRB. So in those 5 games where you were trying to backup your starter, Jamal Lewis, you effectively lost 10.7 points per game if you drafted Smith instead of Taylor.

In some rare cases, such as MIN, you could get lucky and have both Onterrio Smith and Mewelde Moore perform as the handcuff. But those cases were few and far between.

2) Not sure that the backup can perform as well as the starter

I believe that this issue also still has some merit, although it is not clear-cut. When we looked at the top handcuff performers, we generally saw RBs who were pretty highly touted coming into the NFL and/or played on good offensive teams. Conversely, the poorest handcuff performers had not shown as much at the NFL level and were on ineffective offensive teams.

So even though some successful handcuff RBs did buck these trends, it still might be a good rule of thumb to only look for handcuffs who have shown some NFL skills and are on better than average offensive teams. This season, I might look at guys like Larry Johnson. Najeh Davenport, Anthony Thomas, Mewelde Moore and Derrick Blaylock.

3) Limited Roster Space Wasted

As shown on the Team Totals tab, this is a concern if the handcuff you draft never starts. In those cases, you likely passed on several RBs who could have contributed a couple points a game more for your team. However, the excellent success of the handcuffs that do start should override that negative of a wasted roster space.

To show this more clearly, we found out that on average, the handcuff RBs that start a game score 13.3 points. We also learned that handcuffs start 22.5% of the games. The other 77.5% of the games, your handcuff is sitting on the bench losing you about 2 points per game. So we can calculate the expected handcuff value by multiplying 22.5% by 13.3 points and adding it to the product of 77.5% and (2.0) points. The positive result is 2.99 points a game and negative result is (1.23) points a game. The total of these results, 1.77 points per game, can be thought of as the expected result of drafting a handcuff.

4) Limited Draft Possibilities

Nothing discussed here touches on the topic of limited trade possibilities, although I still believe that there is value in drafting another prominent handcuff and possibly trading him to the owner of the RB1.

5) Bulls-eye on your chest during the draft/auction

Likewise, there was not any discussion of this effect in my study, but again I still believe that this is a downfall of picking a well know candidate for a handcuff. I have already seen this in several drafts this year where the Priest Holmes owner has everyone trying to jump in and grab Larry Johnson before he can take Johnson as Holmes' handcuff.

VII. Final Thoughts

A couple of final thoughts:

1) Keep in mind that this study was done for a small dataset, 15 leagues in one season. It may be true that 2004 had many more successful handcuffs than a normal season. Or that these 15 leagues drafted many more handcuffs than a normal league.

2) The most important fact about drafting handcuff RBs that I have not yet discussed is that you must get them for a decent value. As mentioned above, I've seen Larry Johnson go way too early in several drafts this year. You are dramatically increasing the risk level of this practice if you take handcuff players too early because that increases the possibility of one or more of the 3 MORBs being great players. They may be full time RB starters as a matter of fact. You also miss out on great players at other positions.

3) I'd also like to mention that you've probably noticed that most of the MRB starts by handcuffs are later in the season. If you do draft a handcuff, you may want to use the strength of schedule indicator to try to grab some other players with favorable early schedules. Having Larry Johnson or Jerome Bettis run wild for you at the end of the year is likely no good if you started 1-6.

4) Finally, this study made me warm up to the idea of handcuffing star RBs. If done the correct way, with risk minimized as much as possible, you have the effective result of adding at least 1.77 points a week to your team. Obviously, you could add even more points than that.

So if the situation arises, don't be afraid to draft a handcuff RB as long as you look at all the success factors of that situation and minimize the risk as much as possible. It can help make you a Fantasy Football Champion!